What are the odds?

Popular trading ideas, each tested against years of real data. The verdict first, then the numbers behind it.

  1. How big do small caps move on earnings?Small caps move about 7% on earnings day, roughly 1.5× a large cap. About 1 in 14 reports moves the stock 20% or more.68,529 cases tested · see the odds
  2. After a big opening gap, does it keep running?After a 10%+ gap up, small caps kept rising into the close 49% of the time: a coin flip. The open already has the news.7,426 cases tested · see the odds
  3. After a 10%+ earnings move, does it keep going?Big jumps are a coin flip afterward. Big drops kept drifting lower over 20 days 54% of the time for small caps, barely better than a coin flip.12,802 cases tested · see the odds
  4. Are earnings options overpriced?Usually, yes. Small-cap options priced in a 10.5% move on average; the stock moved 9.0%, and beat the options’ expectation only 34% of the time.7,067 cases tested · see the odds
  5. Do big government contracts move the stock?Not enough data yet.

History, not predictions. Not investment advice.